Horses to bet on

July 17, 2025

Improve your horse racing bets. Our guide analyzes contenders, form, and track data to identify solid picks and potential longshots for upcoming races.

Winning Horse Racing Picks Identifying Strong Contenders for Your Bets ======================================================================

Direct your analysis toward contenders exiting a layoff of 45 to 60 days that posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 or higher in their last outing. This specific profile often indicates a well-rested runner peaking for a key event, particularly in middle-distance turf contests. Thoroughbreds fitting this pattern have historically outperformed their morning-line odds by an average of 15%, offering a clear statistical edge for your financial speculation on the race's outcome.

A trainer-jockey combination with a win percentage exceeding 20% at the current meet is another powerful statistical angle to exploit. For instance, the partnership of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Chad Brown consistently delivers superior results on the New York circuit, especially with first-time starters or runners moving from dirt to turf. Scrutinizing these human connections provides a layer of insight that raw performance data alone cannot offer. Focusing on these high-percentage duos can significantly improve your selection accuracy.

Pay close attention to the physical appearance of the equine in the paddock before placing a wager. A gleaming coat and a composed, alert demeanor are positive signs of readiness. Conversely, excessive sweating or agitation can signal a contender is not mentally prepared for a peak performance. Analyze a contender's pedigree for an aptitude on off-tracks; a sire known for producing mud-loving progeny can offer immense value when the weather turns and the ground becomes soft or sloppy.

How to Pick a Winning Horse

Analyze the last three performance figures for each contender. Focus on speed ratings and finishing positions at similar distances.

Scrutinize the 'days since last run' statistic. An entrant returning after a 30-60 day layoff is often fresh, while one with less than 14 days may be fatigued.
Identify contenders that have previously won or placed at the current racecourse. Course specialists possess a distinct advantage.
Look for a 'class drop'. A runner competing at a lower level than its previous outings is a strong signal of intent from the connections.
Examine the 'in-running' comments. A contender noted for 'finishing strongly' or 'making late headway' is preferable to one that 'weakened' or 'faded'.

Observe the equine athletes in the parade ring before placing a stake. Physical condition provides immediate clues.

A shiny coat indicates good health. A dull, rough coat can signal the opposite.
Look for a calm, composed demeanor. Excessive sweating, especially between the hind legs, shows nervousness and wasted energy.
The steed should have a confident, long stride while walking. A short, choppy walk can suggest soreness or apprehension.
Note the muscle definition over the hindquarters. Well-defined muscles are a sign of peak fitness.

The capabilities of the jockey and trainer directly influence the outcome. Your selection should account for their recent performance.

Check the trainer's recent form. https://pixbet-login.app with multiple winners in the last 14 days is considered 'hot'.
Analyze the jockey's statistics at the specific track. Some jockeys excel on certain surfaces or configurations.
Note any jockey changes. A high-percentage jockey taking the mount for the first time is a positive indicator for your pick.

Match the contender's profile to the day's specific conditions.

Confirm the official 'going' (ground condition). Check the entrant's past results on 'firm', 'good', or 'soft' ground and select accordingly.
Assess the distance. A runner's stamina is proven, not assumed. Verify past victories or strong performances at or very near the current race distance.

Decoding the Racing Form for Key Data Points

Prioritize speed figures from the last three races. A contender consistently earning figures 5-10 points above its rivals under similar conditions demonstrates a clear performance edge. A rising pattern of figures is more indicative of current form than a single peak number from months prior. A high figure achieved on an “off” track (sloppy or muddy) has less predictive power for a race on a fast, dry surface.

Analyze the pace projection. A race loaded with designated front-runners (“E” types) often produces a fast early tempo, favoring participants with a pressing (“P”) or closing (“S”) running style. A lone “E” entrant in a field of deep closers is a prime candidate to control the pace and secure a wire-to-wire victory. Align your financial interest with the probable race shape.

Examine specific trainer and jockey statistics beyond their overall win rates. A trainer's high percentage with “1st after claim” or “2nd off a layoff” runners signals proficiency in those scenarios. A jockey-trainer combination with a strong in-the-money record together suggests a powerful partnership. This data often reveals hidden value.

Interpret workout reports for signs of readiness. A notation like “5F 1:00.2 H (2/45)” signifies a five-furlong drill in one minute and two-tenths of a second, performed “handily” (with urging), and was the second-fastest of 45 works at that distance. A “bullet” work (fastest of the day) close to race day indicates peak condition. A string of slow maintenance drills may suggest the mount is not prepared for a maximum effort.

Identify significant class drops and equipment adjustments. A participant moving from a $50,000 claiming event to a $25,000 contest faces far weaker opposition, creating a favorable situation. Note the addition of “Blinkers On” (B) for the first time; this can sharpen a contender's focus and lead to a dramatic improvement. Review the trainer's success rate with this specific equipment change.

Visual Cues to Spot in the Paddock Pre-Race

Assess the contender's coat for a deep, healthy sheen. A dappled pattern across the hindquarters is a strong signal of peak physical condition. A dull, dry, or rough-looking coat can indicate an underlying health issue or that the animal is not at its best. Pay attention to the animal's weight; it should appear fit and muscular, not thin or overly heavy. The ribs should be faintly visible or easily felt, but not starkly prominent.

A relaxed yet focused demeanor is ideal. Look for pricked ears that swivel to take in the surroundings, indicating alertness without anxiety. A soft eye and a loose, swinging tail suggest calmness. Conversely, avoid an entry that is rigid, tucks its tail tightly, or has a clamped jaw. These are signs of tension, which can lead to a poor performance. A thoroughbred that is kicking its stall or biting its handler is wasting valuable energy.

Observe the level of perspiration. A light moisture between the hind legs or under the saddle area on a warm day is acceptable. Heavy sweating, particularly if it produces white foam around the neck and flanks, is a significant red flag. This condition, known as “washing out,” signals extreme nervousness and a depletion of energy reserves before the starting gate opens.

Physical Sign

Positive Interpretation

Negative Interpretation

Gait

A long, fluid, purposeful walk. Hind feet over-tracking the front.

A short, choppy, or shuffling stride. Reluctance to move forward.

Musculature

Defined muscles over the loin and hindquarters. A powerful appearance.

Lack of definition or appearing “soft.” Gauntness around the flank.

Droppings

Firm, well-formed manure balls.

Loose or watery droppings, indicating stress or digestive upset.

Breathing

Calm, rhythmic breathing through the nostrils.

Flared nostrils with rapid, shallow breaths.

The walk provides final clues. A quality runner moves with a supple, ground-covering stride, appearing athletic and purposeful. Each step should be even and balanced. A competitor that appears stiff, takes short steps, or seems to favor one leg is likely experiencing discomfort that will hinder its ability to compete effectively. This pre-race parade is a direct preview of the animal's current physical state.

Assessing the Impact of Jockey and Trainer Pairings

Prioritize the strike rate of a specific jockey-trainer duo over their individual records. A high win percentage for the partnership often signals a targeted effort with a well-prepared contender, a more reliable indicator than the general statistics of the rider or conditioner alone.

Examine the return on investment (ROI) for every dollar placed on a particular tandem. Certain conditioners reserve their premier mounts for a trusted pilot, creating a profitable alliance. A positive ROI, especially over a sample of 50 or more starts, indicates the market consistently underestimates this combination's chances.

Filter performance data by specific racing circuits and surfaces. A combination may demonstrate exceptional results on turf at Saratoga but show mediocre form on the dirt at Aqueduct. This specificity reveals situational advantages for your financial interests and pinpoints where a pairing truly excels.

Identify a trainer's 'first-call' rider at a given meet. This is the jockey the stable consistently uses for its most promising entrants. When this designated rider is aboard, it signals maximum stable confidence in the competitor's prospects, especially for a first-time starter or a runner moving up in class.

Conversely, analyze instances where a top-tier conditioner places a lesser-known apprentice on a well-regarded equine athlete. This can signal immense belief in the runner's raw ability, suggesting it does not require a star pilot to perform. This scenario can offer significant value when making a selection.

Scrutinize the partnership's recent form over the last 30 to 90 days. A historical record of success is less meaningful if the duo is currently in a slump. Current performance provides a more accurate indicator of their immediate potential for a strong finish.